Curse

Danax · Feb 19, 2008, 09:06 PM // 21:06

Ugh. That sucks. By the time I farm an armbrace they'll be worthless!

I hate homework.

**cosyfiep** · Feb 19, 2008, 09:10 PM // 21:10

huh? crash???? when it goes to say 50k---THAT is a crash....right now its still in the rich people territory, so when it drops out of THAT then I will think about it being a 'crash'.....until then---who cares?

stretchs · Feb 19, 2008, 09:12 PM // 21:12

Most of the people that got away with duped armbraces werent going to just jump at putting them on the market, it would be too obvious, they would hold it out, just like stealing something, you wouldnt want to try to fence it in that same market immediately while someone was looking for counterfeit things, its the way of the outlaw to know to hold things a bit til the heat clears some. The price will regardless of what builds drop, yes recently it has been dropping more. Much of that is because it is one of the best places known to make money, the builds are becoming more refined (yes ursan) Plus there has been no new content since gwen, most people have completed it and now are looking for new things which leads them to things like doa and the such.

Randvek · Feb 19, 2008, 09:15 PM // 21:15

Yep. I doubt highly that duping has anything to do with the crash in the market. People blame Ursan, and yeah, it is at fault to a certain extent, but the #1 reason for the crash in Armbraces is, imho, consumable items.

pakhavit · Feb 19, 2008, 09:18 PM // 21:18

I saw a lot minipet in high-end

I feel like they duping mini pet too >_<

politicsxxox · Feb 19, 2008, 09:19 PM // 21:19

2 days ago , i entered a Slaver's Exile team. All party members had a Tormented shield. 1 had the Tormented Sword , 2 had the axe , 1 had the spear.

-Just an observation. Not really suprised at what happened.

Chthon · Feb 19, 2008, 09:30 PM // 21:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetdoc

Anyone have any ideas as to why the market has cratered?

1. Duping introduced an astronomical number of armbraces that got traded/given away to innocent people before the dupers were banned. Those armbraces are still out there. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the number of duped armbraces still out there dwarfs the total number of armbraces ever obtained through legit means.

2. No one knows exactly how many duped armbraces are still out there, so the market has been unable to correct itself. We normally use the difficulty of farming an item to estimate its supply, and we use its popularity in trade chat and on the forums to judge demand, and then estimate a price from supply and demand. With no reliable data on supply, people assume the worst (that there's a huge supply surplus somewhere) and price goes down.

(To throw fuel on the fire though, I suspect that the actual state of affairs may be worse than "the worst" that most people are assuming. At least as far back as the "hacked" and "bugged" items in D2, there've been online-game cartels willing to hold enormous stocks of items for years in order to create the illusion of scarcity to keep prices high. When I see stuff like this, I get a strong suspicion that the same thing is happening again. If this sort of cartel exists, the "fact" that armbraces are any rarer and more valuable than skree harpy wings may be an illusion dependent solely upon their willingness to continue sitting on their huge inventories and restrict themselves to selling a small volume at high prices. If the cartel decides to cash out tomorrow, we might find armbraces cheaper than skree wings.)

3. The Mallyx Exploit added a large number of illegitimate armbraces, some of which were traded/given away before the 117 were banned. Compared to the number of armbraces left over from duping, this is a drop in the bucket, but it's most likely a non-trivial amount as compared to the total number of armbraces ever obtained through legit means. The number of Mallyx-exploit armbraces might even slightly exceed the number of legit armbraces.

4. Ursan makes legit armbraces easier to get. But, again, compared to the number of armbraces left over from duping, this is a drop in the bucket.

¿Evan¿ · Feb 19, 2008, 09:35 PM // 21:35

D
U
P
E
What does that spell? DUPE!

RavagerOfDreams · Feb 19, 2008, 09:38 PM // 21:38

duping + ursan = dead economy

not that it was alive before...

Richardt · Feb 19, 2008, 09:43 PM // 21:43

TBH, when I first saw the drop in Armbraces, I thought it was Ursan.

But when you consider that there's been tons of Ursan teams hitting DoA for about...what? 4 monthes? If UB was soley to blame, then we should've seen the market for this crash a while ago.

There has got to be another cause to this-if it was mass quantities of Dupping left over from the fall still floating around, then again the market should've crashed...unless for some preverse reason people just held onto the Armbraces and as soon as they started seeing them go for less and they panicked and just started selling them to get as much money as they can.

Then throw in all the gemsets from the 117......

Maybe we as a community need to start overpaying to help stabalize the market

jimmyboveto · Feb 19, 2008, 10:03 PM // 22:03

Seriously why are people surprised? If you ask me, between the ursan and duping incident, the crash was inevitable.

obastable · Feb 19, 2008, 10:05 PM // 22:05

If it was up to me I'd:

1 - replace Armbraces with a new item that can be aquired through the exact same means (X amount of gems for 1 new item)

2 - make all current Armbraces a non-transferable commodity

3 - implement a collector that gives 1 loot bag in exchange for 1 Armbrace

4 - give said loot bags an amazingly small chance to produce some rare mini; essentially another coffer with a different name & chance for a few different/new things

*note: overall it may be easier to just combine armbraces into the current coffer of whispers system.

5 - keep Armbraces in the game for the sole purpose of trying to acquire some rare mini (just like coffers) and lower the gem count needed to acquire one accordingly

Sure, it'd piss off a lot of honest farmers, but it'd instantly remove every single duped Armbrace from the economy. Permanently.

Antheus · Feb 19, 2008, 10:13 PM // 22:13

In real world this is the bubble bursting.

Armbrace prices have been overinflated for longest time simply due to perceived impossibility of obtaining them.

Now however, it has become too easy to get them. This in turned caused the price to drop below the real market value (of around 100k). Expect prices to keep coming down well under 100k. Then, the supply will dry up, and they'll slowly balance out at realistic price.

Shanaeri Rynale · Feb 19, 2008, 10:25 PM // 22:25

re: duped armbraces. they should have made them non tradeable as soon as it was clear there were dupes out there.

Sure you'd annoy some people, but no way would it have had the negative effect on the economy duping would have.

Not worried too much about armbrace prices. With no more new stuff in any great quantity coming, everything will reduce in price anyway.

Sir Pandra Pierva · Feb 19, 2008, 10:35 PM // 22:35

Ambraces are like diamonds
common but heavly controlled and inflated.
honestly this thread seems like another

OMG MY AMBRACE FARMING IZZZZZ DEAD I CAN'T MAKE UBER CASH FROM SELLING THEM.

plus most tormented items look like shit anyway.

kradens · Feb 19, 2008, 10:48 PM // 22:48

aw......armbraces take a booboo

if ur stackign armbraces, you already have more money than u need.

get over it.

EmptySkull · Feb 19, 2008, 10:55 PM // 22:55

I think it's a combination of things.

Removing the requirement for a gemset for Razah. Which decreases demand by removing a small sink for the gems.
Duping. Increased supply reduce price. Although this was months ago it is coming into play now because of the following.
Urasn+Consumables. Now anyone with GW:EN can come to DoA and complete what use to take 6-8 hours in 2 and a half. Increased supply of gem reduced prices.
This is leading to the big reason which is
Panic. Now everyone that has been holding on to armbraces as a way to reduce cash for storage is in panic mode. "OMG I have to sell my armbrace now before the price drops too low." As when any market crashes everyone that has them tries to sell them and exceeds demand. Which leads to my next reason.
Demand is lowering. Demand is lowering for 2 reasons:
- Market Saturation. Anyone can farm their own gems now almost for free. There is a small charge of burning a consummable set, but that is made up for with gems. I did it that way. I'm not gonna pay 100k+xx ectos for something I could do myself. And alot of people are the same way.
- Alot of people have their torment weapons. And the surge of people in DoA in shrinking. DoA hs been out what 16-18 months now? So everyone that has characters has gotten them there and gotten their torment weapons. And that's all they wanted so they are done. Of course there is a few new characters entering DoA for the first time but the amount is lowering.

The market is going to continue to correct. Right now panic is whats driving the market into the ground. And Ursanway excelerated this. It was inevitable. Anything that isn't limited in availabilty will always drop in price. The limited mini pets are the only thing that hold thier value. The prices will drop down to around the 100k or even lower for armbraces. If you own alot of armbraces I suggest you get out there and sell, sell, sell!

O on a side note 4 to 2 months away from this years wintersday will be the last chance to get alot for that mini polar. Because by that time everyone will wait to see if they can get one for free.

Siadena · Feb 19, 2008, 11:02 PM // 23:02

Everything you can get in GW (that doesn't get nerfed) will drop in price, end of story. The more people out there farming them, the more appearing out of limbo into the market. So Ursan is a partial cause that was unavoidable, but would have happened anyways, it was just a matter of time.

The biggest problem though was the dupes. Thousands upon thousands of armbraces that were for awhile, only being traded in bulk for rare minis, nerfed weapons, etc. Now they're being sold and traded in smaller quantities everywhere and most the people who have their rare minis and keeping them (cause they have thousands more armbraces or ectos probably). That influx + the inevitable differences ursan and overall DOA farming makes - it was bound to happen and only a matter of time.....

DUPES made that time line shorten though faster then anything.

SIDENOTE - C'mon Anet - add torment weapons to the HOM, that would help pick the market back up on armbraces and gems again

, lol, please o please......

Y.T. · Feb 19, 2008, 11:11 PM // 23:11

ppl should realize by now that the amount of duped armbraces on the market is enormous. back when anet didnt care about dupers where were ppl who were selling stacks of armbraces on amer servers for 10-15e lower than going price - they were explaining that they just bought them all in bulk off japanese farmers... off chinese farmers.... off <insert country name here> farmers - and if u farm DoA 24/7 u still cant get that amount of braces in given time, trust me i know what i'm talking about

anet decided to intervene when the amount of dupes exeeded the amount of legit braces by thousands... and theres no way to actually remove all dupes off the market after they've been moved from the banned account. i think anet's attitude towards dupers was 1 of the main reasons all skilled players left DoA and ursans moved in - its possible to do all 4 areas with 2 ppl 6 heroes w/o any irsans in the team, but it dosnt worth wasting ur time to do it... sad isnt it? but oh well, considering that there will be no now content and so many ppl are leaving GW its ok i guess, evrthing will be dirty cheap in no time

Neo Nugget · Feb 19, 2008, 11:47 PM // 23:47

Good! I'm glad

They shouldn't be that expensive anyway.